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Comments by Sanwar Ali:
The figures show the dramatic effect that coronavirus COVID-19 has had on UK visa processing for entry to the UK. There was continued growth in net migration into the UK until before the lockdown that started on 23 March 2020. Then for more than three months UK visa application centres around the World were closed. It may be years before things get back to normal.
The Conservative Party says that they want to reduce immigration. Due to coronavirus the Boris Johnson Conservative Government may manage to reduce immigration to the UK. It may very well turn out to be the case that COVID-19 and not Brexit will be the main factor in reducing immigration into the UK.
The arrival of Chinese and Indian students on Tier 4 visas has sparked an increase in UK net migration figures, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Prior to coronavirus lockdown measures, net migration in the UK in the year to March was approximately 313,000, rising from 221,000 in the previous year.
The data shows that net migration to the UK is now at its highest level since March 2016, when the figure was estimated to be around 326,000. An ONS report shows that in the 12-months to March 2020, approximately 715,000 people arrived in the UK to live, work or study, while 403,000 left the country.
Tier 4 visa students, previously, the driving force in increasing immigration
The majority of people arriving in the UK during this period came to study, with 257,000 coming to take courses, while 458,000 came for family, work or other reasons.
Director of the Centre for International Migration at the ONS, Jay Lindop, said: “Our best estimate of net migration, using all available data sources, is 313,000 for the year ending March 2020. After a period of stability, we were seeing migration levels begin to increase in the past 12 months leading up to the coronavirus pandemic.”
“This is being driven by increases in non-EU student arrivals, mainly from China and India,” Lindop added.
Immigration from non-EU countries increased to 437,000, representing a jump of 31% over the past 12 months and the highest figure since records began in 1975, when data shows that just 93,000 people arrived in the UK from non-EU nations.
Meanwhile, immigration to the UK from EU countries dropped by 4% in the last 12 months to 195,000, representing the lowest level since 2012.
Coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic led to massive reductions in UK visas
However, Lindop did stress that the latest figures do not account for the huge impact the coronavirus pandemic has had on international migration over the past five months. In the latest quarter, to June, Home Office statistics show that passenger arrivals in the UK have slumped by 29%, while there has been a similar drop in the number of UK visas issued.
12% of visas were Tier 4 visas and 7% were Tier 2 visas, according to the Home Office.
The decline is partly due to the impact of coronavirus, which has led to a 97% reduction in passenger journeys compared to the same quarter in 2019.
The latest net migration figures have been published months after the government announced more details of its new points-based UK immigration system, which will come into operation on 1 January 2021.
Total collapse in UK visa issuance
According to the deputy director of the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford, Rob McNeil, there has been a ‘total collapse’ in the number of UK visas issued in the second quarter of 2020, after coronavirus lockdown measures were introduced.
McNeil said: “The impacts are seen right across the board, with many fewer people getting visas for work, study and family. While statistics for the first quarter of the year suggested non-EU net migration had sharply increased, this is now ancient history.”
“The big question for the future is how long these impacts last and whether we start to see a recovery in non-EU migration later in the year—particularly among students who usually get their visas in the third quarter.”
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